2008 predictions

We will see the cycle of consolidation and proliferation start in the
mobile sphere – as already familiar from the post-dot-com web industry:

1. Massive increase in acquisitions as the big players (from MNO’s to
device manufacturers) will put some of their cash-pile into bying
customers through acquiring e.g. MVNO’s and SMS-providers; or to gain
technology and patents by buying small and innovative companies from
developers to MISP’s

2. At the same time, a few of the heavyweights will wake up and realise
their weakness in controlling only a few links in the value chain; and
as a result rush to merge – a web or media giant with the content will
merge with a major mobile player with the channel and customer base.

3. While the investment bankers are still laughing all the way back
from lunch (and the rest of the economy is sighing of relief, as doom
seems to have been avoided again), the techies (many with nice
redundancy packages from their merged employers) will be busy starting
up thousands of new companies

4. Which will all lead to yet more proliferation rather than the
technology leadership and de-facto standardization that were partially
a motive behind all the mergers and acquisitions

5. Luckily “one web” will nevertheless become a reality, as no-one will
bother to tinker with the basics when there are all these fancy new
things to play with

6. By the end of the year, the analysts and press will be busy arguing
whether the dot-mobile bubble will burst (no pun intended, Andreas &
team at .mobi!)

Pauli Visuri

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